Let’s be honest, when you think of football powerhouses, Israel isn’t usually the first name that comes to mind. But here we are, looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, and I find myself genuinely intrigued by their chances. The road to qualification is long and winding, especially from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), where they were placed after leaving UEFA. It’s a tougher neighborhood, frankly, with giants like Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Australia all vying for those precious direct spots. Yet, there’s a quiet buzz around this team that I can’t ignore. It reminds me of a quote I once heard from a coach about a player returning from injury: “Justin is cleared. It’s just a matter of him getting his game back; he hasn’t played in two months. But I think the break should help more than hurt. He was forced to take it, and he really hadn’t had a break in more than two years.” That sentiment, about a forced break ultimately serving as a reset, feels oddly applicable to Israeli football’s entire recent journey.
Think about it. For years, their path was blocked by the European qualifiers, a grueling gauntlet against the continent’s elite. It was a relentless schedule with little room for breath. Now, in Asia, while the competition is fierce in a different way, there’s almost a sense of a new beginning. It’s like that player, Justin, finally getting a mandated rest after two non-stop years. The initial rust is there—they’ve had to adapt to new styles, travel to unfamiliar stadiums, and build rivalries from scratch. But the core fatigue from banging their head against the same European wall might be lifting. I watched their last few qualifiers, and you can see a team that’s slowly finding its rhythm in this new context. They’re not the favorites, not by a long shot, but they’re a tricky, well-organized side that can punish anyone on their day. Their 3-2 win over Belarus last year, for instance, showed a grit and attacking flair that’s essential for the marathon of Asian qualification.
Now, to the hard numbers and my own take. The 2026 World Cup expansion to 48 teams means the AFC gets 8 direct slots, with a possible 9th via an inter-confederation playoff. That’s a game-changer. A few years ago, with only 4 or 5 spots, I’d have said Israel’s chances were slim, maybe a 15% shot. Today? I’d bump that up to a solid 40%. They’re currently ranked around 78th in the world, which puts them in a pack of teams just outside Asia’s top ten. The key for them will be consistency against the so-called “middle-tier” Asian sides—the Uzbekistans, the Omans, the Jordans. Beat those teams home and away, snatch a point or two from a top seed, and suddenly you’re in the conversation for 6th, 7th, or 8th place. Their squad has some genuine quality. Eran Zahavi, even at 36, is a proven goal-scorer with 35 international goals. Manor Solomon, when fit, provides that spark of Premier League quality. The defensive solidity built by coach Alon Hazan is their foundation.
But here’s where I get a bit more personal and, perhaps, skeptical. The depth worries me. One or two key injuries, and the drop-off in quality can be steep. The travel within Asia is brutal—a trip to play in Doha is one thing, but flying to Sydney or Tashkent takes a different physical toll. And let’s talk about pressure. Israeli fans are passionate, and the desire to finally return to the World Cup for the first time since 1970 is a palpable weight. Will it inspire them or crush them in a crucial moment? I lean towards inspiration, but I’ve seen smaller nations buckle under that very expectation. They need their version of “Justin” to come back not just cleared, but sharper and hungrier from the break. For Israel, that means players like Solomon returning to peak form and the next generation stepping up.
So, my prediction? It’s going to be a nail-biter that goes down to the final matchday. I don’t see them comfortably securing a top-six finish, but that fight for spots 7 and 8 will be absolute chaos, and Israel has the tactical discipline to be in that mix. I’m putting my neck on the line here: I believe they’ll finish 7th in the final AFC qualifying round, securing a direct ticket. Call it a gut feeling, or maybe it’s the romantic in me wanting to see a new face on the world’s biggest stage. They have about 68 points to accumulate over the qualifiers, in my rough estimation, and I think they’ll just about scrape them together. It won’t be pretty, and there will be heart-stopping moments—a last-minute winner conceded here, a miraculous save there. But after decades of waiting and their own forced “break” from the traditional paths, 2026 feels like it could be their time. The break might just have helped more than it hurt, setting the stage for a comeback story that would be one of the tournament’s best.